From American dream to nightmare: for the first time in 50 years, more people are leaving the U.S. than arriving

The United States is losing its attractiveness: in 2025, for the first time in 50 years, the number of emigrants has exceeded the number of immigrants. Negative flows, falling consumption and the impact on the economy and employment are shaking the American dream.

Donald Trump continues to portray an irresistible America, back in the spotlight and coveted by all. Unfortunately for him, the reality outside the his rallies' podiums is quite different: fewer foreign visitors and more and more people deciding to leave the United States and settle abroad. This is an unusual phenomenon for America, whose net migration is negative in 2025, the first time this has happened in at least half a century.

According to an analysis by the Brookings Institution, last year, the United States recorded a net migration deficit of between -10,000 and -295,000 people, i.e. more departures than arrivals. At the same time, tourism is also showing signs of weakness, with the number of visitors expected to be around 9% lower in 2025 than in 2024.

Key figures: who's coming in and who's going out

The overall picture is based on a strong imbalance between inflows and outflows. Legal entries (including temporary visas, green cards and refugees) total around 2 to 3 million, but are down on previous years. Green cards issued abroad fall to around 560,000-575,000 in 2025, compared with 670,000 in 2024. The number of refugees collapses from 105,000 to less than 12,000. Unofficial entries are difficult to measure, but are estimated at between 22,000 and 39,000. For 2026, Brookings sketches an uncertain scenario: net migration could oscillate between -925,000 and +185,000, with a high probability of remaining very low or negative.

Conversely, outflows are increasing: ICE deportations (Federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement) are estimated at between 310,000 and 315,000, while voluntary departures linked to the political and social climate are well above normal, and could involve between 210,000 and 405,000 people. All in all, outgoing migratory pressure is sufficient to reverse the national migratory balance. By 2026, according to the most stringent scenario, these outflows could reach 575,000 people.

Politics and internal climate: the accelerating factor

Why are more and more U.S. residents choosing to leave the country? Mainly for personal, political and economic reasons. More specifically, the reasons given are: domestic politics (89%), the search for opportunities (73%) and the cost of living (57%). According to several analyses, the evolution of migration flows is linked to a more restrictive political context. The tightening of migration controls, the reduction of humanitarian programs and the increase in expulsions have modified the behavior of immigrants already present, pushing a growing proportion of them towards voluntary return migration or towards third countries.

In practice, those with a precarious status may choose to leave for fear of being detained, separated from their families or prevented from returning. Those with legal status may decide not to stay in a country perceived as less welcoming. And then there are the American citizens who are not automatically counted in Brookings' migration data, but who also embody this same cultural divide.

Impact on employment: growth almost at a standstill

The slowdown in migration has a direct impact on the labor market. "Equilibrium" employment growth, which in recent years has exceeded 120,000-200,000 new jobs per month, will have fallen drastically by 2025. In the second half of the year, it is estimated to have fallen to just 20,000-50,000 jobs per month, while in 2026 it could approach zero, or even become negative (-20,000 to +20,000 in the most critical scenario). This translates into a more fragile and less dynamic labor market, with already visible effects on employment and unemployment, the latter having risen slightly by around +0.3 percentage points.

Consumption and GDP: billions lost to the US economy

The decline in the immigrant population also has a direct impact on the real economy. The decline in consumption, linked to the reduced presence of foreign workers and their growing precariousness, translates into an estimated loss of between $40 and $60 billion in 2025, followed by a further decline of between $10 and $40 billion in 2026.

The impact on GDP is measurable: growth would be cut by around -0.2/-0.3 percentage points in 2025, and up to -0.32 in 2026 in the worst-case scenario. In addition, the reduction in the immigrant workforce accounts for around -0.18 percentage points.

A country changing course

This overall picture describes a profound transformation: fewer arrivals, more departures and a growing tendency, among residents themselves, to leave the United States. These are not just numbers, but a structural signal that affects work, consumption and the way the country is perceived in the world. America has built an immense part of its power on the idea of being the destination par excellence; the country to come to. Today, however, it faces a far more disturbing question: what happens when part of the world, and part of its own population, starts to look towards the exit?

Source : Brookings