The "Dubai Chocolate" effect: between war and a buzz on social media, pistachios are becoming more and more expensive

From the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz to viral videos about Dubai Chocolate, the pistachio has found itself at the center of a perfect storm, and prices are soaring.

Try buying a bag of pistachios at the supermarket in the next few weeks and take a good look at the price. What you see is not a mislabeling, but a snapshot of a crisis that has been building layer by layer, reaching its breaking point in March 2026.

According to Expana data, the wholesale price of pistachios reached $4.57 per pound (around €8.68 per kilo), its highest value in eight years. But what exactly is going on?

The question is complex and involves the war in Iran, climate change, but also "Dubai Chocolate", the chocolate bar that has gone viral on social media networks.

Why are pistachios becoming more and more expensive?

Iran is not only one of the places in the world where pistachios grow best, it's literally the country that sets the tempo for the global market. With around a fifth of the world's production and a share of exports approaching 30%, Tehran is the supplier on which the entire industry depends. Today, this supply chain is broken.

Since late February 2026, the military escalation involving Iran, the United States and Israel has made shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz extremely unstable, and traffic has slowed down sharply. For pistachio traders, this means one simple thing: it's getting harder and harder to get supplies, and what little is moving is priced to reflect the risk.

But it would be a mistake to put all the blame on the military crisis. The pistachio market had already been under pressure for several months. In 2025, drought hit three of the main production basins simultaneously: Iran, Turkey and California. Harvests were lower than forecast, and supply dwindled just as demand accelerated. Prices had already risen by around a third over the year, well before the outbreak of armed conflict.

Added to this were international sanctions and internal Iranian turbulence, which had long been complicating export logistics and had caused the value of the rial, the national currency, to plummet. In reality, the conflict didn't create the crisis: it amplified it.

Then there's a third protagonist in this story, the famous "Dubai Chocolate". In recent years, bars filled with pistachio cream and knafeh paste have become a global phenomenon, fueled by social media networks and reproduced on an industrial scale by the world's major confectionery groups. Pistachio ice creams, spreads, drinks, pralines: the pistachio has invaded shelves and menus, and the food industry has contributed to accentuating the pressure on demand in a market already under pressure.

Will we have to give up pistachios?

The global pistachio market is currently worth around $5.5 billion, and could reach $7.2 billion in the next five years, according to Mordor Intelligence. If the logistical situation in the Middle East does not improve, this growth could translate not into greater product availability, but into ever higher prices for ever smaller quantities.

The very real risk, according to industry analysts, is that pistachios will cease to be an everyday ingredient and become a luxury product, with cascading effects on everything that contains them: from ice creams and spreads to pastries and bakery products.

Source : Financial Times